Italy v Netherlands U21

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
Italy v Netherlands U21 European Championship U21, International	15/06/2013 20:30	asian handicap	Holland, dnb	2.075	Bet at B
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Preview and Run of Play

Italy shows up to this European U21 Championship Semi Final after having qualified from a group also containing host nation Israel, Norway and England. Italy played three very controlled games qualifying comfortably. Netherlands qualified already after beating Germany 3-2 and Russia 5-1, Against Spain they rested most of their stars and were hammered 3-0. The sides met in the Autumn of 2012, Italy won 3-0 in that clash.

I believe Italy will have slightly more ball possession in this game as their midfield contains the likes of Verratti, Insigne (Napoli) who should be back after sitting out against Norway, Marrone (Juventus) and Florenzi (Roma). The Netherlands has a very good midfield too with the likes of Strootman (PSV), van Ginkel (Vitesse) and Fer (Twente) but I rate the Italian one slightly higher.

Can the Italians make the possession count? Up front Italy has players like top scorer in qualification Gabbiadini (Bologna), Destro (Roma), Immobile (Genoa) and Borini (Liverpool), so yes they are well equipped at this level. In terms of handling lightning dutch counter attacks they got some pretty talented defenders too. I do however have to say; Italy's defense is their weakest part looking at the team sheet.

Netherlands will most likely have to win this by staying as compact as they can and counter. As usual the Dutch shows up with a top notch offense. De Jong (Gladbach) is a star at this level, and Winjaldum (PSV) has been scoring goals for fun both for club and country. Ola John of Benfica is a massive talent too. They can really hurt Italy. Defensively they've got Feyenoord duo De Vrij and Martins Indi shoring things up. At this level I would say that's pretty solid stuff!

Betting Tips

The Netherlands have impressed me with offensive fun football in this tournament. They took out Germany 3-2 so they won't be fearful going into this tie. Italy has looked very composed and solid, like most Italian championship sides always are. Allthough Italy should have more possession I actually think the Dutch has shown enough this tournament to deserve being favorites. 2/1 (3.00) for them to win it at BET365 looks like value to me. I predicted their win at 2.90 over Germany, and that German side should be a notch better than the Italy side they meet tonight. Those odds just don't look right one bit.

One can also consider Netherlands, draw no bet at 2.075 (27/25). There is obviously some draw danger. And personally I prefer this bet.

• Bet now at B

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