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Soccer betting for beginners – Important factors part 2 – Form

By Admin on August 1, 2012 in Football, Sports

Soccer betting has hopefully become a tad more interesting after reading our article covering the league table and its relevance for soccer betting. Perhaps by now you have also had the chance to profit on our many bet tips?

In this article we will cover another very straight forward looking, but yet difficult factor to master for soccer betting success.

How to bet on soccer - form basics

Since you are here you are probably interested in online betting and you have probably read quite a few bet tips here and there and seen a lot of newspapers mention the form of a team as a deciding factor for them picking a bet or predicting a certain result.

It sure looks impressive when a soccer team line up 6-0-0 over the last six games. Let us take a closer look at that piece of statistic. In the league table article we mentioned that even close to a full season worth of games seem a small sample of statistics to base soccer betting decisions on. What do you think our opinion of such a small sample size is?

You guessed correct, we are not too impressed. Tipsters presenting bet tips carelessly pointing at such thin material should be avoided like the plague. Save your money for the really good bet tips or bets found through your own research and sweat.

How to bet on football - On a bright note

A form statistic of 6-0-0 indicates that the probability that a team has performed well is greater than if the statistic was far worse. We appreciate that, and it is worth taking a note of. We just don’t take every statistic we see at face value, and we believe you shouldn’t either.

You can argue the psychological upside of such a run of wins; nevertheless you have to look a bit more behind the numbers. You got to see things how they really are, not just how they appear.

Form - Looking behind the numbers

You need to do some acid tests. Nothing fancy, but still most people overlook this when they place their bets. As we have been regulars on many a trading floor, taking bets 24-7 we can testify to that in a heartbeat.

Obviously if it is early days for the given season, overlook games from last season. A win is a win you might argue, we beg to differ. Clearly, in our opinion a recent win, when isolating form as a factor has more weight for soccer betting purposes than a win a season ago.

You may also want to check out if the set of form statistics presented is covering all or selected competitions. Again, for us it is fairly straight forward to say that a win in Serie A has more weight than a win in Coppa Italia versus a Serie B team. Not all wins are equal.

If you can, look at the set of form statistics to determine if they present only home, only away or both home and away games. A 6-0-0 statistic with three home, and three away games has more value when your betting pick is playing away to an opposing side than six home wins.

If you have time; look for freak happenings. Did the last couple of wins come as a result of disputable red cards or perhaps a couple of lucky offside goals against the run of play? If you did have the time, and the answer to that question is yes; do you really want to put much weight on such a form statistic? I hope for the sake of your wallet that your answer is no.

It is not difficult to find information on the last few games when it comes to most leagues. If you are so lucky that your life partner allows you to watch all the soccer on TV you want, happy days. By watching the games on TV you really can make up your mind on form so much better. If you put in the sweat you certainly will gain an edge.

We at understand most people don’t have life partners accepting that you spend all your time watching soccer on TV, or grinding the laptop for soccer betting information. We also understand you have other interests to dedicate time to. For you; luckily enough odds geeks like us like to share and we put our bet tips on display for the world to see, for free, daily.

For those that get an “aha moment” reading our articles and start digging deeper in the material; we will show you how to bet, and hopefully over time, help keep more money in your pocket. If you liked this article we suggest you move on and read our article about head to head analysis. It is another interesting piece for the soccer betting novice.

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