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Soccer betting for beginners part 4 – Team news

By Admin on August 1, 2012 in Football, Sports

We have touched on the subject for this article in our previous articles on soccer betting for beginners. The scope of this article is to drill into your head how to approach this very important soccer betting factor. Our previous articles on this topic is found here:

Soccer betting and the mind

If you have gotten more than a few bets under your belt by now, and in general have been scouting the internet for soccer betting tips, we think we are odds on when we say you have made at least a couple of bets on the basis of team news.

It is probably the single most important factor in bet analysis being published online. Therefore it should intuitively be of great importance to get this soccer betting factor as right as possible. Unfortunately most people, even many soccer betting experts react to team news in a very poor fashion.  In our betting psychology articles we cover many of the reasons why we tend to interpret this data wrong. We would especially like to point you to our narrow framing article, and our anchoring article. Please, do go ahead and read those articles for more detail. To sum up the input from those articles; it is so easy to overreact to team news. Our mind loves to toy with us, and lead us astray from realism.

A practical example of how to analyze team news

Say Liverpool FC is playing Newcastle away and on the day of the match news is released stating that Liverpool will be missing Gerrard, Enrique, Skrtl and Carroll. Sure, these losses look awful for Liverpool and the home side odds will most likely be dropping fast. But, stop for a moment. Analyze the situation; there is more to it than the wow factor. The home side odds may deserve the drop, but then again, they may not.

In defense Sebastian Coates or Jamie Carragher can easily cover for Skrtl. Glen Johnson has proved time and time again he is as effective on the left back as the right. In his place Martin Kelly could deputize on the right back as he has done many a time before with great success. Gerrard is hard to replace of course, but Liverpool have plenty of midfield options for the central positions; Charlie Adams, Jordan Henderson or Jay Spearing are the likely contenders for his role. On top; Dirk Kuyt is not a bad alternative to Carroll is he? would say the Liverpool defense in this particular situation wouldn’t be weakened at all. The replacements are all excellent players. In midfield and on top there would perhaps be some strength missing. Overall we would judge this as weakening of the offensive Liverpool strength. The defensive part of Liverpool’s game might even become a little bit stronger than usual, as the players covering up in general have a tad more defensive thinking.

How to go about

Surely the plot is thickening. We realize the Liverpool side is slightly weakened, but by how much? This is the tricky part. What if the odds went down from 3.50 to 2.95 on the home side (Almost 16%). Does that sound right to you?  You will see that kind of odds-drop quite often, and some of the time these dropping odds are nothing more than overreactions.

You got to compare the odds on offer to the percentage chance you give each and every possible outcome of the match.  In absolute terms the odds on Liverpool should go down. By how much is hard to say and requires further investigation.

For instance, we also have to look at the team sheet of Newcastle before we can say anything meaningful about the odds on the match up in relative terms. Is Newcastle at full strength? If not, who is out, how weakened are they approximately? If Newcastle would have some players out then the reduced Liverpool strength might not be so much of a game changer as previously thought. If they are at full strength, the drop in odds might be justified.

Even if the team news is very important you can’t forget the other soccer betting drills. If you haven’t read our previous articles on these soccer betting need-to-know analysis drills do so now please.

Soccer betting – final touches

If your soccer betting is going to yield positive results then you have to go through the bet analysis in the fashion mentioned here. You got to grind every angle, turn every stone, and make sure you get as close to the crux of the matter as possible.

Most of the time, you will not find value in dropped prices arisen out of team news. The bookmakers price in further betting from punters blinded by the team news.  Some of the time, the value is actually to be found in the other side of the bet. Especially if the punters take the bait and keep on pounding those already unplayable odds further down. monitors the betting world for value betting opportunities such as those resulting from overreactions on team news and other news, and you can find our best soccer picks in the soccer betting tips section.

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