Liverpool v Udinese predictions

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
Liverpool v Udinese predictions Europa League Uefa, International	04/10/2012 21:05	full time result	LFC win	1.65	Bet at Betfair
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Liverpool v Udinese predictions and preview: Betting stats and facts

Liverpool have started poorly in the Premier League. On the first six games the stats read: 1-2-3. Four of these six games went over 2.5 goals. It is however very difficult to look at stats for this fixture as Liverpool will field a very young side. It is however of some interest to note that when a youthful side has been involved, like against West Bromwich and Young Boys (The last Liverpool Europa Cup game), over 2.5 goals have been the result. Away to Young Boys Liverpool won 3-5. Away to WBA, Liverpool won 1-2.

Udinese have started their Serie A campaign with 1-3-2.  Four of these six games have ended over 2.5 goals. It is however important to point out the last two games have ended 0-0, and that three out of their last four games (Including their last Europa League game agains Anzhi) have ended under 2.5 goals.

Team News and Run of play

It looks like Liverpool will rotate heavily once again. Brendan Rodgers now have faith in his youngsters, and several of them will get their chance at Anfield. The over paid veteran Joe Cole might be in contention too after yet another spell on the sidelines injured. It is fairly likely both Agger and Skrtl will be rested. Coates should then play, and most likely will Carragher pair him in the centre of defence. It is likely Reina will rest and Jones will get the nod for the goal keeper position. Enrique has been a shadow of himself on left back, but it's said he has been struggeling with a bad knee. He might however feature here unless Robinson is sent out on the pitch. On right back Wisdom is likely to continue to make it three games in a row for him. Downing should get another chance, so could Pacheco, Yesil, Assaidi, Coady, Morgan and a wide range of other talented young LFC players. This, allowing Suarez, Allen, Gerrard etc to rest. The dynamic youngsters Sterling and Suso who has been on fire lately probably will feature on the bench. Shelvey should be involved as he is eligible for Europa League play.

Udinese will field a solid side. They had most of their stars on-field in the 1-1 draw against Russian Anzhi. Last season they rested several players in the Europa League, but this time around it looks like they give the league more weight. The Italians spent north of €25M in the transfer window after selling matchwinners such as Asamoah, Isla and keeper Handanovič. The new players have yet to gel, so Udinese struggles quite a bit in Serie A. It is not really keeping hold of the ball, or creating chances that is the problem. It is converting the possession and chances into goals. So far 34 year old veteran Di Natale is the man they must count on, other than that meaningful conversion has been hard to spot. di Natale was the man that got the draw for Udinese against Anzhi as well. He scored the equalizer well into injury time. Defensively speaking Udinese looks solid.

I expect Liverpool to go out aggressively after trashing Norwich 5-2 away from home last weekend. The young lads of Liverpool have gelled well into the system Rodgers is trying to instill at Anfield. They will dominate possession, away to Norwich they managed a whopping 64%. Against West Bromwich in the League Cup the young Liverpool side also impressed in their possession even if they did not dominate as much as against Norwich. I would think this team can have 55-60% of the possession in a game of this stature, especially since the Kop will be roaring the youngers on. The challenge for Liverpool will be handling a defensively speaking capable Italian team, that also know how to play ball (They have beaten AC Milan this season), especially if Liverpool can't get the ball in the net early on.

Liverpool - Udinese predictions: 1X2 betting preview

The main scenario is that Liverpool will dominate possession and play the ball around the pitch with some accuracy and speed. The home side will create chances. Udinese will have to challenge the young Liverpool team and put their own mark on the game. For periods they will manage, but in general it is all counter attack for them. The low conversion rate on goal scoring chances for Udinese does not look promising at all when going to a stadium such as Anfield.

It is very hard not to pick this dynamic Liverpool side. 1.65 is decent odds, and it is worth backing at Betfair. I am not 100% convinved by the youngsters yet, but I can't see them losing as they have so much fight and skill in them. I actually cover my bet up on the draw so I get 1/3 of my stake back if the bet end a draw (Also at Betfair), this mainly because the draw odds is a whopping 4.00 (3/1). I do this quite often to reduce fluctuations in my betting bankroll.

You can choose to take Liverpool at 1.65 only, or cover up with some money on the draw (4.00). Either way, click here to get this odds at Betfair.

Liverpool - Udinese predictions: Asian Handicap preview

Since Udinese have proven they can shore things up in defence (their last two Serie A games were 0-0), I am not looking for a wide handicap. This even if this young Liverpool side have kicked ass and whipped in five goals away to Young Boys, three goals away to WBA and five goals away to Norwich. They do display some naivity in defence and Italian sides are usually to capitalize on such behaviour. In other words; this is a real test for the young LFC players. I rather want to take something like a Asian Handicap like -0.75 or -1. Actually -1 is priced at 2.13 by Pinnacle Sports. I think that is more than good enough. If Liverpool only win by one goal I get my stake back, if they win with two or more I get my stake multiplied by 2.13. Fair enough.

If you agree, take Liverpool -1 on the Asian Handicap with Pinnacle Sports here

Liverpool v Udinese predictions: Total Goals preivew

This is close to a coinflip situation for me. I do however keep over 2.5 goals a narrow favorite. Looking at the 2.5 Goals line in the market it seems this time most sportsbooks agree with yours truly. Given the latest goal scoring performances of this Liverpool team however one can't deny 1.97 represents some value. Pinnacle Sports is offering this price, and I can't sit still. I take it. An odds of 1.97 equals to 50.76% chance, and I think this is around 4-4,5% value.

If you agree with my analysis you can take 1.97 for over 2.5 goals with Pinnacle Sports here.

Liverpool - Udinese predictions and preview: 

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