How to bet live - part two
In part 1 of this article series we covered the basics on how to bet live. The scope of this article is to further strengthen your understanding of this fast growing betting market. We will take a closer look at in-play betting in relation to how you got to go about your betting analysis.
How to bet live – available information
When the ref blows the whistle and the game starts you have full overview of the team sheets and all information surrounding the game. Pre-game betting doesn’t allow this detail until about one hour before kickoff. Obviously, if you know your sports then this is an advantage as you better can read the various aspects of the game. Based on the players playing you can with greater likelihood say something about the team’s strategy for this particular encounter, and you can compare team strengths and weaknesses in all areas of the pitch. How you should go about this is material for a separate article.
On the negative side; the bookmaker most likely will have been able to adjust his prices so they reflect the available information better. Don’t get caught in only focusing on the information you got. Compare it to the odds available.
How to bet live – statistical considerations
You will need a basic knowledge of statistics and probability if you plan on profitably betting in-play odds. Most serious online bookmakers will have done a whole lot of statistical number crunching to get their odds right. They really put in a lot of effort to make sure they protect their hold. After all, they are businesses and businesses are supposed to make money so we can’t blame them.
One of the bookmakers where we worked hired in top notch math professors and several Mensa members to make sure there were no statistical and mathematical flaws in the live betting prices.
Just in case you wonder what this really translates to, here is an example from Premier League betting. The online bookmakers will know the statistical likelihood of Manchester United or any other team winning or drawing even when they go down 1-0 away to Sunderland in the 64th minute for instance. They know what the average odds are hereon in, pretty spot on for every incident that happens on the pitch at any time.
If you were born in the land of averages, then the bookmaker live odds would be as good as it gets and you would give up finding any value to bet on. We find that thinking way too defensive. If you know how to bet live you can still make money. You just got to figure out the spots where the statistical odds offered by the bookmaker are off. This either by doing better work crunching stats than the bookmaker, or using your sports knowledge to spot opportunities where the statistics no longer are applicable. More information on how you do that is found in a separate article.
How to bet live – betting tips
We urge you to check out our betting tips section where you will find plenty of information that you can take into account for your live betting. We also present live betting tips from time to time on certain matches. Be sure to follow us, and learn from us.