When we look at sports betting in comparison to other gambling games such as horse racing, casino games etc. there are vast differences, but also many similarities. Any gambling transaction has a specific outcome attached, and the odds are always supposed to be in the favor of the house. In our not so humble opinion sports betting provides the gambler with more value betting possibilities than most of the other betting avenues. That said you got to be prepared to work your socks off to find that value, and you got to be patient in order to let those value bets work for you.
What is a value bet?
The bookie sets a line. After you have done your thorough analysis you realize that he is off on that line. The discrepancy between the offered odds and the correct odds is your value. Here is a visual example:
Real Madrid is playing Osasuna, and Real Madrid opens at 1.20. Osasuna (+0.5) opens at 4.00
Real Madrid are favored and expected to win eighty-three percent of the times the teams meet under the exact same conditions. Osasuna are a longer shot at 16.67%. Without analyzing all the factors we usually do when betting, we could shoot from the hip and simply recommend a bet on Osasuna. The thinking is that the bookmaker knows Real Madrid will be bet to pieces by leisure punters and fans. He is very likely to reduce the Real Madrid odds due to this as he will still receive high turnover, but now with better margin. This is however extremely speculative and you surrender to a whole lot of randomness.
We can also imagine that Real Madrid gets unlucky and find their seven most influential first team players ill hours before the game. Still Real Madrid may be class, and a lot of punters will just pick the winner based on their name, but clearly, 4.00 on Osasuna now looks like obvious value. Quantifying the value is very hard to say without doing an enormous amount of tedious work, analyzing betting statistics and individual player statistics. At least, here we have a valid and logical reason to look at the original odds offered and say: “Hey! Something fishy is going on here. I think Osasuna is priced way to high given the circumstances.”
How to bet on value
Value betting is an exercise in patience. You are taking relatively small edges from every game. Don’t think bookmakers like to give money to you for free; their odds will more often than not be spot on. However, those small edges you take can over time turn you into a very rich man or woman. This value is derived from careful analysis of the bet offers. You go through a long checklist of factors for every sport and situation. You look for information and special occurrences, even weather conditions that could tweak the odds into positive expectations territory. If this sounds like a hell of a lot of work; it is. Luckily enough we here at howtobet.net love dirty work and we have prepared a lot of articles you can enjoy on every sport and every check list point.
Many take a very statistical approach to betting for value. Actually, most successful sports punters have grinded through several mountains of statistics or simply just have an intuitive understanding of statistics that most of us never can replicate.
When you think- and analyze in terms of: what if the game was played 1000 times, the mathematics and statistical conclusions may look simple. Statisticians have worked hard over the years to make us believe the imaginary average is the real deal. That said; the imaginary average is good enough so you can grind out a decent profit this way if your statistics work is top notch, your volume of bets is high and the stakes are acceptable.
Even if the imaginary average is profitable, let’s think about the above for a second though; breaking everything down is all fine and dandy, but matching the exact same conditions for a fixture 1000 times is next to impossible. There will be lots of exploitable situations that your stats will overlook and you will run into bets you never should have taken. In other words, there is even more value to be had.
We at howtobet.net have done a lot of work and thinking on this throughout our years of betting and bookmaking, and all the tips we provide in our excellent bet tips section are based on stats backed value principals. We too break down betting statistics and re-engineer them into applicable and exploitable situations. On top of that we analyze the betting events looking at all factors we possibly can. We hope that through our articles you can learn to do it on your own and become a successful sports bettor. Nothing would make us happier.
Rounding it off
Done right, value betting will build your bankroll quickly. Actually in our opinion betting on value is everything in sports betting if profit is what you’re after. Read all our articles. Put in the work, be patient and let those edges work for you over time. Stay disciplined and be a strict money manager. Follow these simple guidelines and you should fare okay.
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