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Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen - live bet on halftime total goals

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Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen - live bet on halftime total goals
Bundesliga, Germany
20/09/2015
17:30
total goals Halftime total goals live bet TBD Bet at Sportmarket
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

I am a bit of a closet Dortmund-fan, so am really looking forward to this match. Borussia Dortmund has four wins in four matches, and a victory today will make sure they keep up with Bayern Munich that won their match yesterday. It is especially in offence Dortmund has done well this season, and fifteen goals in four matches are really impressive. The team showed good morale last weekend when Hannover gave them a good fight, and this midweek they fielded a strong team in the Europa League against Krasnodar. It turned out to be a hard-fought win, Krasnodar took the lead and Dortmund earned the win in the latest minutes of the match. For today’s match Marco Reus could be back, as he managed to train without pain on Friday, and I think he will at least be on the bench today. But both Subotic and Bender are unavailable, and even though the can replace Subotic it will be hard to replace a class player like Bender.

Bayer Leverkusen has yet to show their full potential this season. They started with two hard-fought wins, but then lost the next two matches against Bayern Munich and Darmstadt respectively. Leverkusen has a very strong team on paper, but so far I am a bit disappointed, and especially their offensive play has been below expectations. But they did improve this midweek in the Champions League, when coach Schmidt finally fielded a very offensive team against BATE Borisov. Leverkusen won 4-1, and newly signed Hernandez was one of the goal scorers, something that bode well for both him and the club. For today’s match Lars Bender is doubtful, and otherwise there are no new injuries or suspensions to report. Of potential starting XI players, the defender Omer Toprak is unavailable (but he has yet to play any matches this season).

The head to head stats between these two teams since (and including) 2013 is 1-2-2. In these matches two have ended over 2.5 goals, while three have ended with two or less goals. But in four of the five matches there has been goals scored in the first half. In Signal Iduna Park the goal difference is 2-2 in the last four matches (since and including 2012), and only one of these ended over 2.5 goals.

There is no doubt that the teams respect each other, and when both teams are in good form then they have offensive capabilities that indicate bets on over 2.5 goals. But it could be hard for coach Schmidt to start the match too aggressively (especially if Reus is match fit), and shoot-out between these two teams should be won more often by Dortmund. Leverkusen should therefore prioritize the defensive play and focus on counter attacks.

This is a match where I want to wait a few minutes into the match before I place my bet, as I want to see if Reus is starting. I want to see that at least one team is going aggressively on the attack, and assess how much focus for instance the other team is putting on the counter attacks.

The bet I will be looking for is over 0.75 goals before halftime. The current odds with Sportmarket is between 1.70 and 1.75 for over 1 goal at halftime, and it should not take that many minutes into the match before the odds are up to around 2.20 (6/5) (unless both teams start the match in a cautious mode).

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