Mainz v Hoffenheim

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
Mainz v Hoffenheim Bundesliga, Germany	18/09/2015 20:30	asian handicap	Mainz -0.25	1.90	Bet at B
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Mainz lost 2-1 away to Schalke last weekend. Schalke controlled the match and had the most possession, and deserved to win. But possession is not everything, and Mainz is pretty good on counter attacks. In tonight’s match, however, Mainz will be expected to keep more possession, while Hoffenheim will be more content with going for the counter attacks. Last time Mainz played a similar match was at home to Ingolstadt, where they lost 1-0. But at home against Hannover they won 3-0 and played well.

For tonight’s match Mainz will miss Fabian Frei, who normally plays as defensive midfielder (he also did not play in last match against Schalke). The offensive player Sampeiro could be match ready again, and he has done really well for Mainz so far this season so if he plays it will be a welcoming addition.

Hoffenheim has not played as badly as their results indicate. But the players on top have not done well enough, and this was very apparent against Werder Bremen when they lost 1-3 at home. Eduardo Vargas came in at halftime in that match and scored one goal, and Hoffenheim needs him to be 100% match fit as Kuranyi and Uth are not in good enough form. Their star player Kevin Volland has also struggled, so there are several issues for coach Gisdol to resolve. No new injuries or suspensions have been reported for this match.

This fixture ended 0-0 last season and 2-2 the season before that. This should be a very tight match, both teams prefer to let the opponent keep possession so they can focus on counter attacks. I expect Mainz to take control of the match, and the question is if Hoffenheim can take advantage on counter attacks. I am not so sure about that, the squad does not seem settled enough yet, as expected after many changes this summer. I am therefore betting on Mainz -0.25 at odds 1.90 with BET365, if there is a draw we get half the stake back.

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