Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich predictions

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich predictions Champions League Uefa, International	25/05/2013 20:45	full time result	1X	2.10	Bet at B
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich predictions

The Champions League final between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich takes place on Wembley stadium. Not many would have put their money on both these two sides to make it all the way to the Champions League Final. However, after all the fine football they have produced, this certainly is a tie to look forward to.

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund started their domestic season poorly, but once they found they're feet they secured 2nd behind runaway Bayern Munich. In the Champions League they started off in the group of death with Real Madrid, Manchester City and Ajax. Every opponent was sent home losers. They didn't look uncomfortable away either. Dortmund played really well away to Real Madrid and Man City, and could easily have won both ties (draws). Ajax was beaten comfortably.

In the playoff Shakthar Donetsk was comfortably beaten 5-2 on aggregate, before they beat Malaga in a thriller of proportions. After that Real Madrid was taken out 4-3 (4-1 at home, 0-2 away).

Jurgen Klopp should be able to field close to his best side. Bayern Munich bound Gotze isn't a likely starter, but other than that the big guns will join the party. He is world class, so he's obviously going to be missed. At the same time it will allow players like Reus and Lewandowski to shine even more.

The expected Dortmund starting eleven: Weidenfelder (Captain), Pizckezk, Hummels, Subotic, Schmelzer, Gundogan, Bender, Kuba, Grosskreutz, Reus, Lewandowski

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich under Jupp Heynckes has been fluent, attack minded and ruthless. This Bayern Munich side has no serious weakness and Pep Guardiola must be very happy with the squad he is about to inherit. Bayern only lost 1 out of a total of 34 Bundesliga games this season, and in the Champions League they've been pretty solid too.

Bayern Munich won group F ahead of Valencia. They won all their home games. Away from home they lost against BATE, drew 1-1 in Valencia and beat Lille. So far they were perhaps not as impressive as Dortmund.

In the playoffs Arsenal was beaten in a 3-3 thriller that saw Bayern go through due to one more goal scored away. After that Juventus were beaten 4-0 (2-0 both home and away) before Barcelona was humiliated 7-0 (4-0 home, 3-0 away). Everyone knew Bayern Munich could beat Barca, but if someone had said Bayern would win 7-0 after two legs, would you have believed him? 

Bayern Munich still miss German International Kroos (Midfielder) as well as defenders Rafhina and Badstuber. I doubt this will influence the outcome though.

The expected Bayern Munich starting eleven:Neuer, Lahm (Captain), Dante, Boateng, Alaba , Schweinsteiger, Martinez, Muller, Ribery, Robben, Mandzukic

Betting tips

Bayern Munich is the favorite to win this tie. That is quite understandable after their demolition of Barcelona. However, we got to look at more factors than just one game to determine where the value is hiding and what our betting tips should be.

Since and including 2011 these sides have met eight times. I think this is a relevant interval to look at. One year may be to little, and a larger will in my opinion just be wrong as Dortmund had a long period of difficulties, and results from that period could dilude the real value of those stats. Anyway, in this eight game interval Bayern Munich has won twice, the game has ended draw twice and Dortmund has won four. It must be said however that Dortmund hasn't won any of the last four, of which three were played at the Allianz Arena in Munich.

Team wise I think both sides are great. Hard working collectives with excellent players. Great with the ball at their feet, and comfortable in possession. They're great at going forward on breaks, and great at defending. It all looks quite even steven to me. Dortmund missing Gotze is of course a minus, but Kroos is a big miss for Bayern Munich too in my opinion. 

It has been stated by several notables, including Sir Alex Ferguson that Dortmund has been all-in for the Champions League this season. Perhaps their early season blips were due to this? Even if that's not the case, Dortmund has finished the season, both domestically and in the Champions League really well.

What about that Barcelona game then? Sure, Bayern Munich were outstanding, but perhaps Pep had been whispering some tactical advice in to the ear of Jupp Heynckes? Perhaps not? Even if not, such a result could be down to random events. In the second leg Barca looked beat from the off. Over the course of the entire Champions League campaign Bayern Munich has been great, but they've looked human. They can be dealt with.

No matter what: Looking at the entire Champions League campaign of the two sides I wouldn't say Bayern deserve to be priced around 4/5 (1.80) against such a classy side as Dortmund at neutral ground. I just can't find any good reason to price Bayern so low at all actually. Looks like the market went into a cognitive trap where the Barca game now looking like the only tree in the forest.

My bet will be the Double Chance 1X, which in this case is Dortmund and the draw priced at a very decent 2.10 (11/10) at BET365. I do not want to choose between Dortmund and the draw on the 1X2, that computation look complex, so for these wonderful 90 minutes of football I think the 1X is the best choice.

BET365 also offers new accounts up to £200 as a deposit bonus, and up to the same amount in free bets.

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