Argentina v Colombia

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
Argentina v Colombia World Cup Qualifiers, International	08/06/2013 00:05	full time result	X	4.00	Bet at B
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Short stats preview

This World Championship Qualifier is propably the most mouthwatering fixture this week. The top four in South American will qualify directly for Brazil 2014. Argentina will host Colombia as leader of the pack with 7-3-1 (24-8 goal difference) in eleven matches. At home Argentina are 5-1-0 (18-3). Colombia is third in the group with 6-1-3 (19-7) in ten matches. Away from home they're 3-0-2 (6-4).

When the sides met in Colombia in November the Argentines won 2-1 in a very close match. In 2011 the sides met in Santa Fe (Copa America). That game ended 0-0.

Analysis and Predictions

Neither side has many injuries to report. Argentina will miss the experience of Maxi Rodriguez (Newells Old Boys). Fernando Gago (V.Sarsfield) is also out. Messi is a doubt! He has recuperated well from his hamstring injury, but do the Argentine management dare risking him here? After all they, look very comfortable at the top of the Qualification table, and it would take quite a bad row of losses for them not to go to Brazil now. Colombia has no injuries to report. Should he sit out Lavezzi (PSG) is the favorite to take his place. Roma's Lamela is another option.

We are obviously dealing with two very good sides here. That said, I'd like to add the weak side of both teams looks to be the backline. Argentina is better player for player, with the likes of Garay, Zabaleta, Fernandez and Rojo vs Colombias ageing Milan star defender Yepes and  Napoli's Zuniga. These two are played with South American based players, leaving players such as Milan's Zapata on the bench.

Colombia has a top drawer midfield at international level, but still: Argentina should have enough to have most of the ball control in midfield. Argentina relies on Mascherano to shore things up defensively from his anchor position. Angel Di Maria takes care of the more offensive parts of the business with free roaming Messi and the forwards. Banega of Valencia is likely to play as well as Gago is out.

Colombia has the gifted Guarin of Inter Milan who has had a very good season individually. Cuadrado of Fiorentina did well in the Serie A as well. "The Rock" Carlos Sancehz Moreno of Valenciennes adds steel to this techincal unit. South Am based Torres is also one heck of a player. Besides these the Argentinian coach, Pekerman has tinkered a bit trying to find the best midfield options.

Up front Argentina usually builds their play around what Messi does. Besides him Aguero of Manchester City and Higuain of Real Madrid are expected to play. As mentioned, Lavezzi and Lamela are also world class and could feature. Colombia has match winners up front in Radamel Falcao, Jackson Martinez, James Rodriguez and Muriel. Overall I'd say they're equally gifted up front. Take Messi out of the equation and I would favor the visitors attacking line up over the Argentine!

Overall this should be a very even affair. I think Argentina will try to take the game to Colombia as they will want their attackers to run at the perceived weaker Colombian defense. I think the home side will have a slight possession advantage, and I do expect them to create slightly more chances as well. Colombia will however know what to do with their own possession and they'll be very dangerous on breaks. They got excellent players for quick football on the ground, and can do damage to this Argentina side, especially if Messi sits out.

Betting Tips 1X2

Argentina are definitely favorites, but odds under 3/5 (1.60) just doesn't reflect the real difference in strength between these sides. 3/1 (4.00) for the draw looks much more tasty with BET365. That is obvious value to me.

Asian Handicap

BET365 has Colombia +1 at 1.825. As I predict a close, tight game I think that price is very good. Even if Argentina would win by one goal we'd still get our money back.

Total Goals

BET365 offers 1.80 (4/5) for over 2.5. That's not bad considering five out of six Argentina home qualifers have gone over 2.5. The sides surely will have to give each other respect, but with so strong attacking line ups versus on paper "weaker" defensive lineups high scoring seems more likely. Also, the reverse fixture of 2-1 went over, so I sniff some value in the quoted odds.

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