Portugal v Russia
| Match | Date | Selection | Bet | Odds | Bet now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Russia World Cup Qualifiers, International |
07/06/2013 21:45 |
asian handicap | Russia +0.5 | 2.05 | Bet at B | |||
| Betting prediction was written by Ronny | ||||||||
Predictions
Russia is top of European World Cup Qualification Group F under Fabio Capello with four wins in four matches. Portugal are third with 11 points in six matches. Just goal difference separates them from Isreal in 2nd place.
Portugal were favorites for winning this group, but Russia have looked impressive while Portugal perhaps have been a subpar so far. For instance, they needed an injury time goal to secure a point against Israel. They actually went 1-0 up in that one, but had to work themselves out of a 3-1 down hole.
Not only have Russia won all four games so far, they havent conceded a goal yet. With their technical, well composed football Russia is a force in today's game. Many tipped them to do well in the European Championship, but perhaps it is only now we get to see what Russia is capable of?
When the teams met in Russia, the home side won 1-0 after Kerzhakov scored an early goal. Neither side has absences that should have an effect on the outcome of this game.
Betting tips
I expect Russia to soak up Portugese pressure, and aim for quick breaks when good opportunities arise. The Russians are just experts of that playing style, so I do not doub't they'll mangage to see their strategy through in an effective way. It will be up to Portugal to take this game to the Russians and not give them too much space to counter in. I am sure coach Bento is very aware of that, and is preparing his big guns for battle.The Russian defense will of course get a handful to handle when Portugal attacks from either flank, but Russia showed they could handle that in the reverse fixture. They'll be confident they can again.
Portugal is priced around 4/5 (1.80). I do not fancy that price. Portugal has had many great editions, but this one doesn't seem too be up to their standards. Russia has done more than plenty to prove they're top drawer. Anyhow; I rate this game more open than the odds indicate.
Asian Handicap
BET 365 offers 2.05 (21/20) for Russia +0.5 on the Asian Handicap coupon. Given my analysis those odds are excellent, there is no doubt about it.
Total Goals
The Under 2.5 line is set at 3/5 (1.60) which equals a 62.5% chance. I find that quite useful given the setting. Russia will stay compact for as long as need be. It 
will be hard for Portugal to score from open play. Most likely it will take a Ronaldo Free Kick or a moment of pure magic to drive this fixture to an over game.
1x2
BET 365 offers 3.40 (12/5) for the draw and 4.75 (15/4) for a Russian win. Allthough Russia is better now than as of late, and Portugal is a wee bit weaker I do not see any reason to bet the away win. Portugal has too solid a home record in qualification for that. I much rather go for the draw option. Given the low pricing for the home win, I am pretty certain the draw holds some good value.
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