Soccer betting for beginners part 5 – Derbies
Soccer betting analysis requires that you are aware of certain types of games where all your normal bet analysis is somewhat less applicable than under normal circumstances. One such occasion to keep in mind is derby games.
What is a derby game?
In soccer betting analysis a derby game is usually a matchup between teams from the same city or region. A few great examples of this are: Manchester United – Manchester City, AC Milan – Inter Milan and Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid. Teams may or may not share the same stadium. Out of the three examples mentioned only the two Milan giants share stadium, namely the San Siro.
It may also be a matchup between clubs who for one reason or another have great battles against each other. Often these football battles are fought with undertones of hate or other strong emotions among supporter groups and even the players on the pitch. Examples of such games are Manchester United – Liverpool, the classico: Barcelona – Real Madrid and the derby’d Italia which is Inter Milan – Juventus.
How do derbies play out?
Soccer betting analysis usually focuses on averages of various statistics. This mixed with input like team news, motivation and even weather conditions. For derby games, a lot of the time you can forget about the statistical averages.
Yes, sometimes you will see extremely classy opposition take on less sophisticated opposition and crush it. However, don’t forget that odds betting are all about the long run. In the 2011/2012 season Espanyol held a world class Barcelona team to a surprise 1-1 result. This was just about five months after beating their big brother Barcelona in a friendly at Camp Nou as well.
Not all derbies are the same of course. Some are firecly fought in the sense that they yield lots of goals. Lately, the Manchester United – Manchester City game has proven to be such a game. Since August 2011 they have met three times. In those encounters they have produced a jaw dropping seventeen goals.
Other derbies are more about not losing, and the teams play accordingly. Such games usually end 0-0, 1-1 or with a narrow low scoring win. One such fixture has been Liverpool – Everton, the Mersey side reds and blues. Since 2009 they have played seven competitive matches. Out of those, only one match was over 2.5.
How to bet on derbies
Soccer betting experts often stay away from such games unless the setting is special. They have plenty of other games to focus on. The atmosphere on the stadium, the media buildup and general rivalry make the happenings on the pitch slightly more random. In other words, as soccer betting objects they are harder to call. We have all seen these types of games receive more than their fair share of red cards, free kicks, penalties etc. All those events can be game-changers, and if you are a soccer betting expert you usually want to minimize betting on such type of random outcome type of games.
However, more than 97% of us are leisure punters. We want to bet on the game for a plethora of different reasons. For leisure bettors; unless you think the contest is too unevenly matched there might be value to be had on the outsider or the draw. This is especially true if the outsider is playing at home. Just be sure to check if the teams share stadium or not. If they do share stadium; be more careful as the home advantage has vanished.
Also, certain cup games and friendlies that are not deemed important by big clubs often lead to interesting betting opportunities. Betting the derby underdog in such a situation has born fruits before, and may very well keep on doing so. Bookmakers have to factor in that most punters will take the favorite anyway, and therefore they lower the price on the favorite team.
The end
We at Howtobet.net hope this soccer betting write-up was to your liking. Feel free to share it with your friends. The next article on this topic list several interesting local derbies, and give you an overview on how these soccer betting opportunities tend to play out. Should you want to just proceed on to betting, we strongly suggest you check out our soccer betting tips section. There you find plenty of soccer picks. We suggest you read check out our other Soccer betting articles. They are found here:
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