West Ham v Southampton

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
West Ham v Southampton Premier League England, England	20/10/2012 16:00	full time result	West Ham win	1.91	Bet at William Hill
Betting prediction was written by Matt

West Ham v Southampton predictions and preview: Betting stats

West Ham sit 8^th in the Premier League with 11 points from their opening 7 games (W3 D2 L2) and their recent form looks good (WDDWL) with the defeat at home to Arsenal the only blip there. At home they seem to play their best football and have notched up two wins, a draw and that Arsenal defeat in their opening 4 games at Upton Park. Their games have averaged a fairly low 2.29 goals but still 4 of their games have seen over 2.5 goals.

Southampton, as was probably expected with their tough start, sit 17^th on 4 points (W1 D1 L5) with a form record of LLWLD suggesting they are making improvements. Their away record is poor however, with 3 defeats from 3, albeit against Man City, Arsenal & Everton. Their games average a massive league high of 4.57 goals with all but one game (a 2-0 home defeat against Wigan) seeing over 2.5 goals.

Last season these two sides met in their push for Championship promotion and the result at Upton Park was a 1-1 draw; defender and own goal specialist this season Jos Hooiveld equalising after a Mark Noble penalty put the Hammers 1-0 up.

Team News and Run of Play

West Ham have short-term concerns over Diarra, Reid and O’Brien and one or two of them may feature in this game. Long-term they are without Jack Collison (knee, again) and Vaz Te’s nasty looking dislocated shoulder during the Arsenal game will keep him out for a few months. Saints are without star summer signing Gaston Ramirez through a dead leg; he could be out for another month, while Jack Cork is also out through a similar injury. Nathaniel Clyne may be back.

West Ham started the season well but are yet to put together a consistent run of victories in order to push their way further up the table. They look by far the most at ease of the promoted clubs and might be a surprise package come the end of the season. Their midfield is key to how they play and have provided most, nearly all, of the goals. No goals from any of the strikers so far will worry Sam Allardyce but with Andy Carroll fully fit again they will expect some goals from him.

Southampton have struggled so far. They fought valiantly against City and United but ultimately took nothing from either game with two 3-2 defeats. If they want to avoid a relegation straight back to the Championship I think they’ll need to turn dominance into points. At St Mary’s they look a good side but on the road they’re shipping goals for fun and this match could see the same happen again; they’ve conceded 12 away from home in just three games. It’s safe to say they need Jay Rodriguez to find his scoring boots or we could see Ricky Lambert try and carry this team to survival which probably won’t end well.

I can see West Ham’s midfield dictating this game from the off. The likes of Nolan, Noble, Taylor and Jarvis far exceed the level of Southampton’s shaky looking midfield and they are strong. This might be a scrappy affair with a few bookings and maybe a red card. Former Portsmouth player Matt Taylor was sent off in the corresponding fixture last season.

West Ham v Southampton predictions: 1X2 betting preview

For me it has to be a West Ham win here. Just looking at Southampton’s inability to keep the opposition from scoring makes me think that West Ham could grab a couple of early goals and sit on their lead. It will be a solid if unspectacular performance but they will do enough. The Hammers looked good for their point against Arsenal but were eventually broken down and lost 3-1. They have beaten two sides who struggle on the road in Aston Villa and Fulham and face another in Southampton. A price of 1.91 with William Hill looks a good bet on the West Ham win.

If you agree, click here to bet with William Hill.

West Ham v Southampton predictions: Asian Handicap preview

West Ham are close to Even money for this game so with the handicap at -0.5 and no odds exceeding the match odds, the value lies in the 1X2 market.

West Ham v Southampton predictions: Total Goals preview

For me this game has goals. Southampton have conceded 20 already this season which is an average of nearly 3 a game. On the road they concede 4 a game on average. West Ham may only score an average of 1.5 goals a game at home but they now face a leaky defence with their top striker back in the fray. The combined average goals of West Ham’s home and Southampton’s away games is 3.71 so all signs point to a good value bet of over 2.5 goals.

If you agree then over 2.5 goals is 1.79 with 188bet.