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Hamburger SV (HSV) v Bayern Munchen predictions

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Hamburger SV (HSV) v Bayern Munchen predictions
Bundesliga, Germany
03/11/2012
18:30
asian handicap HSV +1.5 1.76 Bet at VCbet
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Hamburger SV (HSV) v Bayern Munchen predictions: Betting stats

Hamburger SV (HSV) is 4-1-4 in their first nine Bundesliga games. The goal average in those nine fixtures was 2.44 goals per game. Form wise HSV is W-L-W-W-D-W. At home the stats read 2-0-2. The goal average has been two goals per game exactly. Three of those four matches have actually had only one goal scored in them.

Bayern Munchen is on top of the Bundesliga table with 8-0-1 in their first nine matches. The goal average in those matches was 3.44 goals per game. Form wise in the Bundesliga Bayern Munchen is L-W-W-W-W-W. Away from home Bayern is 4-0-0 this season, with a goal average of three goals per game. Bayern Munchen has not yet conceded a goal away from home. Half of those four games went over 2.5 goals. In every fixture Bayern won by two goals or more.

Hamburger SV v Bayern Munchen has been a routine fixture in the Bundesliga.  Back in January 2012 the two teams played out a 1-1 draw. The season before HSV managed a 0-0 draw, and back in 2009 they even won the Bavarian giants 1-0.


Run of play and team news

Possession wise 40-60% seems realistic.  Last time they met possession was distributed 39-61, and the season before that it was an even 50-50. I fully expect Bayern Munchen to lead the way in this match. 

HSV has proven lately that they are improving. They are good on the counter attack, and don’t really have a problem with having less possession than the opposition. At home this season it must be noted they already beaten Dortmund 3-2. The visitors did enjoy most possession, fired most shots on goal, but it was HSV that took the points. That said, Hamburger SV is not a poor team by any standards, they can play ball too. I just don’t think they will go out all guns blazing versus an on-fire Bayern Munchen team. As usual though, it all comes down to creating those chances, and converting them. 

Hamburger SV will look to their potent strike force to do the trick while the rest of the team defends with teeth and nails against the Bayern Munich offensive. The young promising Heung-Min Son has scored five goals so far this season, and Latvian Artoms Rudņevs has grabbed three. World class attacking midfielder Rafael van der Vaart has only scored one goal for his new club after leaving Spurs, but he has already shown his worth with five assists. HSV will need him to shine if they are going to get anything out of this match.

The flair of Bayern Munchen doesn’t need much introduction. The most interesting thing is probably that Mandžukić has really been proving himself with eight goals so far this season in the absence of German ace Mario Gomez. In nine games five Bayern Munchen players have notched three goals or more. Mandžukić is mentioned already. Another worth mentioning is Thomas Muller with six goals and five assists so far. Ribery has already gotten four assists and two goals, so he must be stopped as well.

Bayern Munchen  has Champions League football coming up in the midweek, and one can always ask if they have lost momentum after picking up their first loss of the season in the Bundesliga against Leverkusen. That might be in the back of their heads, and is pretty much the only thing I can see distorting a Bayern dominance picture on the pitch. And make no mistake about it, if Bayern Munchen is off HSV can eat them alive with their own offense.  With “Jupp” Heynckes at the Bayern Munchen helm I find it quite unlikely though that Bayern will have a relaxed attitude towards this game. He has plenty of experience, and so does the core of his team. Against Leverkusen they just didn’t convert. Bayern Munchen had close to four times as many shots on goals, and was 14-2 on corners (just to paint the overall picture). 

HSV v Bayern Munchen predictions: 1X2 betting preview

To sum up my preview so far: Bayern will be confident they can create enough chances to do the necessary damage to HSV. With flair players offensively and a rock solid defense things do look good on paper. HSV on the other hand will look at the last fixtures between the teams for inspiration, as well as to their own promising attacking skills. Bayern Munchen should have a good chunk of the possession, and most likely out-shoot the home side 2:1.

The odds available for Bayern Munchen is 1.30-1.40 in the market as of now. Given the fact Bayern has won all their away games in the Bundesliga so far this season, and that with a two goal+ cushion, who can blame the market? That said; odds of 1.40 (2/5) is usable if you think Bayern are a 71.5% favorite or more. If you think that is the case Pinnacle Sports offer you enough to take on a bet. You can get 1.40 from Pinnacle Sports here

Personally I am tempted to go for the draw. Simply because I find the odds of 5.30 is too good to overlook. I can understand the basis of why it’s set. Bayern only played three draws in 17 away fixures last season, and so far they’ve got none this season. I do however find the games considered to be too few to be a statistically valid point. I also add some weight to the recent fixtures between these sides.  

If you would like to follow my draw value play at Betfair, you can click here

HSV v Bayern Munchen predictions: Asian Handicap preview

The betting market is understandably leaning heavily towards a cushioned win for Bayern Munchen. Most leisure punters will back these handicaps, and the recent stats are staring us in the face. If we also weigh in a potential momentum shift for Bayern, upcoming Champions League, a slightly improved HSV and the recent results in this very fixture I personally lean to betting Hamburger SV +1.5 at 1.76. In order for us to lose that bet Bayern must win by two goals or more. In this exact setting I think the stated odds are good.

Take Hamburger SV +1.5 Asian Handicap with VC Bet/Bet Victor here

HSV - Bayern Munchen predictions: Total Goals preview

The betting market thinks this is an over match. The best odds offered on over 2.5 goals are 1.64 at the time of writing. For that to be any value the real chance of this being over 2.5 goals must be 61%+. Given the solid offenses of both teams, that can easily be argued for.

You can take 1.64 at Betfair here

If you add more weight to the parts of my preview that focus on the last meetings between the teams, upcoming Champions League etc. You can go for a value play on the Under 2.5 goals line. Odds are currently offered at up to 2.45. The best odds are found at Betsson.

Take 2,45 (equals a 40.8% chance) at Betsson if you believe this game is going under 2.5 goals

Rounding it off

I hope you have enjoyed this Hamburger SV - Bayern Munchen preview and all the predictions in it. If you would like to read more betting predictions like this one, we have plenty. You can find them all here: Betting predictions. If you are specifically looking for Bundesliga predictions: Here they are.

 

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