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FC Porto v Paris St. Germain (PSG) predictions

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FC Porto v Paris St. Germain (PSG) predictions
Champions League Uefa, International
03/10/2012
20:45
full time result Draw 3.39 Bet at Pinnacle
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

FC Porto v Paris St Germain (PSG) predictions and preview: Betting Stats

The home side has 3-2-0 in their first five games of the Portugeese Primeira. The four latest games out of those have all ended with four goals or more in them. Eight out of their last ten home games have ended in a home win. They dominated their first game of this CHL season. Porto enjoyed a 60% possession advantage against Dynamo Zagreb and won 2-0. In that game they managed eight shots on target. In their last six home games in the Champions league they are 3-2-1, and three of these six games were over 2.5 goals. Paris is 4-3-0 in the first seven fixures of the new season in France. They got four wins on the trot. In three of those four they kept a clean sheet, and won with two goals or more. They started their CHL campaign with a 4-1 win against Dynamo Kiev. In that game they had 51% of the possession and managed ten shots on target compared to their opponents who only managed two.
 

TEAM NEWS AND RUN OF PLAY

Both sides should field very good teams, but Thiago Motta, Ezequiel Lavezzi, Jérémy Menez and Matthieu Bodmer have missed matches as of late, and are doubtful for PSG. They do got excellent squad players though. FC Porto has been fantastic at developing talent and selling it on. Recent big moneymaking transfers for FC Porto have been the transfers of Falcao who went to Atletico Madrid, and Hulk who ended up in Zenit St. Petersburg. They have managed to fill the gap with the pacey and skilled forward Martínez, and the younger Rodríguez, both from Colombia. This is also a Porto side that likes to play ball. It is not uncommon to see Porto enjoy 70% possession when playing at home against lesser sides in the Primeira. Paris St. Germain (PSG) has a very clever and top level experienced coach in Ancelotti. His side usually plays a mix of possession football and counter attack. You never really know what you'll get from this tactical master mind.

I envision that Paris St. Germain (PSG) will go out with a clear aim to make life difficult for Porto. I can't see Ancelotti ordering his troops to go full throttle with so many players missing. He will rely on his extremely solid defence, spearheaded by Thiago Silva, possibly the best defender in the world. I expect FC Porto to take advantage of the missing midfielders for the visitors, and play ball quickly in the middle of the park.  FC Porto have a fantastic midfield in Lucho, Mouthino and Defour. They are all very good footballers, and they should, on their best days be playing around the likes of defensively strong Sissoko (Ex Liverpool and Juventus) and 19 years of age Verratti. There is also as mentioned plenty of scoring potential in this FC Porto side.

For Porto the key will be to keep Ibrahimovic at bay. After a slow start the world star Swede has been flying high and notched seven goals so far in Ligue 1. Against Sochaux they also got Gameiro going. He got two easy chances, and converted them with ease (in an otherwise lacklustre PSG performance). I am not so sure the young defence of Porto will be to happy with the powerful and tricky PSG ace. With Pastore still providing play-maker goods in his normal style, do not count PSG out of this tie. 

FC PORTO - PARIS ST. GERMAIN (PSG) PREDICTIONS: 1X2 BETTING PREVIEW

It looks like a game where Porto will have over 60% of the possession. They are up against one of the best defences in world football here. PSG will be looking for some offensive spark from the highly capable Ibrahimovic, Pastore and Gameiro. The odds have dropped already on the home win, but you can still get 2.30 on the home win from Sportingbet. After having read my analysis I can understand if you opt for that solution. I however, go for the draw, at a massive 3.39 with Ladbrokes. Why? I simply find that this is too much value. It is very easy to overlook that PSG is a fantastic side even with some influential players missing. Seriously, their defence is fantastic and up front they can convert. Given the setting here; they can keep a clean sheet with this group of player, and need be I am pretty confident they can venture forward and notch a goal too.

If you agree with this, you can take 3.39 with Pinnacle Sports here.

FC PORTO v PARIS ST. GERMAIN (PSG) PREDICTIONS: ASIAN HANDICAP PREVIEW

I am very tempted to go with PSG, draw no bet. 2.48 at Pinnacle. looks very good. I think Paris St. Germain have enough player material here to give this Porto side plenty of problems, especially when the ball is in the final third of Porto's half. I am not convinved the home side can penetrate the defences of the Parisian side even if they got talent up front. This PSG team just looks very solid. Even if Verratti is young, and Sissoko isn't what he once looked to become (before his eye injury) they are solid defensively minded players who can break up the play of the home side.

If you think this analysis is good, take 2.48 with Pinnacle Sports here.

If you want to find out more about Asian Handicap betting I suggest you click here: Asian Handicap explained

FC PORTO - PARIS ST. GERMAIN (PSG) PREDICTIONS: TOTAL GOALS PREVIEW

This looks like a coinflip for me. Both sides have such wonderful attacking players available for selection, and questions can be asked about the strength of the PSG midfield and the general strength of the Porto defense. 2.12 with 188bet looks good to me. 

If you agree with my reasoning you can take that 2.12 with 188bet here.

FC PORTO - PARIS ST. GERMAIN (PSG) PREDICTIONS: Final words

I have tried to give you my best analysis of this game. I hope you have enjoyed it, and found it useful. If you want to read more betting predictions from me and the Howtobet.net team you can click here: Betting predictions

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