Valencia v Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) prediction

Match	Date	Selection	Bet	Odds	Bet now
Valencia v Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) prediction Champions League Uefa, International	12/02/2013 20:45	full time result	Draw	3.25	Bet at Betsson
Betting prediction was written by Ronny

Valencia v Paris Saint-Germanin (PSG) is rich versus poor, and it is one of the most interesting Champions League games this round for that very reason. Valencia has had to sell off excellent players regularly to get by. PSG, as we all know has invested heavily in their squad. Both sides qualified from reasonably easy groups in my opinion. I was particularly impressed with Valencia however as Jonas, Soldado and Feghouli shared 11 goals between them in six Group F matches. That said PSG did score two or more in their last four group stage games. PSG are favorites to qualify, but this looks tight.

Stats and Facts

 

Valencia is 7-2-3 in the Primera at the Estadi de Mestalla. In those 12 games 44 goals has been scored. 23 for and 21 against! This gives a goal average of 3.67 goals per game. Valencia has managed 3 clean sheets in their 12 Primera home games so far.

In the Champions League this season Valencia is 2-1-0. BATE and Lille was both beaten by two goals. The game against Bayern Munchen ended 1-1. The goal average in their 3 Champion League home games was 3.33. Valencia is unbeaten in the last nine Champions League games at home. 

Valencia is in pretty good form at the moment. In the Primera Division Valencia is 4-1-1 overall. At home they’re 1-1-1 after the winter break. Note that the draw came against Barcelona, and the loss against Real Madrid. 

PSG is 7-3-1 away from home in Ligue 1.  In those 11 matches PSG has only let in 6 goals. They’ve scored 23 in the process themselves (Goal Average of 2.64 goals/game). In the Champions League PSG is 2-0-1 away this season. The loss came against FC Porto of Portugal. Against Dynamo Kyiv and Dinamo Zagreb, Paris St-Germain managed clean sheets, and scored twice against both.

Form wise Paris St-Germain is 5-1-0 overall, and 4-1-1 away from home in Ligue 1. PSG has managed 5 clean sheets in their last 6 overall. Away from home PSG has managed an impressive 4 clean sheets on the trot. In those same 4 matches PSG has scored 12 goals. 

Team News

Valencia could miss Aly Cissokho (Defender) as he had to leave the pitch before half time when Valencia defeated Celta Vigo in the weekend. Jeremy Mathieu (defender) is still out injured. Antonio Barragan (Defender) is suspended.

Paris St-Germain has doubts over Thiago Silva (The best defender in the world?) and bits and part midfielder Thiago Motta.

Valencia v PSG 1x2 tips

As this is a two legged affair PSG will most likely rely on their great defensive organization. Coach Carlos Ancelotti has built a formidable system at the back. Up front with action players like Ibrahimovic, Menez, Lavezzi, Pastore, Gameiro and Lucas you know goals will come. PSG will always be a threat. Valencia will be very wary of that!

Valencia might not be the most rock solid team defensively, but they’ve held Barcelona to a 1-1 recently, and they’ve managed a clean sheet against Atletico Madrid. Bayern Munich also managed to score only one goal at the Mestalla. I can’t see any reason why Valencia can’t do well defensively against Paris SG. Up front Valencia has a match winner in Soldado. He is supported by Jonas and Valdez who also chip in with their fair share of goals. Valencia will go into this fixture knowing they’re tough to beat at home. 9 games unbeaten at home in the Champions League is a massive stat.

I do think Valencia will have most of the possession, and Paris will venture forward on breaks mostly. PSG will also go forward whenever they can smell the Valencia side being a tad unorganized at the back. 

I think Valencia will be slightly better prepared for this game. The Spanish Primera is obviously a tougher playing ground than Ligue 1. Having played Sevilla, Real Madrid and Barcelona in January Valencia will be at the level necessary to meet a world class side like Paris St-Germain.

I think both sides have enough to come back from going down 1-0, and should PSG go one up, they’ll definitely go in defensive mode. This would possibly make a 1-1 scenario more likely.

My shout is still the draw. I take 3.25 (9/4) with Betsson Sportsbook. This sports book is a huge listed operation based in Sweden and Malta. Betsson offers New Customers a Risk Free Bet of €100. If you take my betting tips and lose, you’ll be refunded up to €100. That’s a market leading promotion!

Go to Betsson by clicking here

 

Asian Handicap betting tips

Let's see if you follow me on this one:

As PSG will choose a defensive approach due to the two legged setup, and since;

Valencia is so tough to beat at home, and since; 

Valencia has been matched at a very high level after the winter break I like the Valencia DNB (Draw No Bet). 188BET is the official betting partner of Liverpool FC. They offer 1.71(71/100) for my pick. On top of 1.71 they currently offer a deposit bonus of up to £50.

Take the Draw No Bet here

 

Total Goals preview

As this is a two legged matchup and PSG is likely to focus on their solid defense I can’t realistically see more than one goal for the French away side. Valencia is an offensive side generally, but they’ve shown signs of slowing down slightly when they meet better sides. The exception is of course their 5-0 loss at home against a rampant Real Madrid, but besides that the Under 2.5 for big matches looks to be the norm. Betsson Sportsbook offers 1.67 (67/100) for the Under 2.5. I like that odds a lot. Again, if you are a New Customer, be sure to take the Betsson €100 Risk Free Bet currently available.

Take Under 2.5 Goals here

 

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